Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth |
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Levinson, David , Feng Xie, and Norah Montes de Oca. Presented at First International Conference on Road Transport Funding (Banff Canada) August 2006 |
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This research assesses the implications of existing trends on future
network investment, comparing alternative scenarios concerning budgets
and investment rules across a variety of performance measures. The main
scenarios compare “stated decision rules”, processes encoded
in flowcharts and weights developed from official documents or by discussion
with agency staff, with “revealed decision rules”, weights
estimated statistically based on observed historical behavior. This research
specifies the processes necessary to run the network forecasting models
with various decision rules. Results for different scenarios are presented
including adding additional constraints for the transportation network
expansion and calibration process details. We find that alternative decision
rules make only small differences in overall system performance, though
they direct investments to |
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